Date of Award


Degree Type

Doctoral Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Business Administration (DBA)


Jack Welch College of Business


In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Business Administration in Finance, Sacred Heart University, Jack Welch College of Business.

Dissertation Supervisor

Dr. Lucjan T. Orlowski


This paper examines the intricate impact of commodity futures prices on US dollar exchange rates. The daily data on returns on futures and on USD are tested with Bayesian VAR, multiple breakpoint regression and two-state Markov switching. The tested commodity futures include West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil, as well as copper and gold. The tests imply that changes in commodity returns inversely affect USD exchange rates. This relationship is not uniform across the tested commodity futures and is affected by market risk. The relationships between crude oil futures prices and USD exchange rates are normally negative but they become positive at stressful market conditions. The relationships between copper prices and USD exchange rates are inverse at normal market periods; they turn positive at times of financial distress. The relationships between returns on gold futures and on USD are very unstable.

JEL Classification

C58, F31, G13

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.



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