How Susceptible Is the European Financial Stability to Economic Policy Uncertainty?
This study examines the interdependence and asymmetries in the relationships between the economic policy uncertainty and the selected financial stability variables in Europe. Specifically, the impact of uncertainty on inflation, equity returns, the euro in US dollar exchange rate and interest rates is analyzed. The results show a significant negative impact of shocks in economic policy uncertainty on equity returns in Europe during the examined January 1987 – January 2023 period. Uncertainty shocks affect inflation asymmetrically at different time intervals. Asymmetric responses of interest rates and the exchange rate to uncertainty shocks are also found. The results suggest that economic policies in Europe should encompass efforts to mitigate economic uncertainty.
Orlowski, L. T. (2023). How susceptible is the European financial stability to economic policy uncertainty?. Journal of Policy Modeling. Doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.07.011