Date of Award


Degree Type

Doctoral Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Business Administration (DBA)


Jack Welch College of Business


Submitted as partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Business Administration in Finance Sacred Heart University, Jack Welch College of Business and Technology, Sacred Heart University.

Dissertation Number DBA01/2023.

Dissertation Supervisor

Dr. Lucjan T. Orlowski

Committee Member

Dr. Michael Herley

Committee Member

Dr. Khawaja Mamun


Over the past decade, the rise of Geopolitical Risk (GPR) has had a significant effect on macro financial variables, prompting central banks to accumulate reserves as a "war chest" to protect their economies from the detrimental effects of such shocks. This study examines the asymmetries in the long run, short run, and locational asymmetric effects on foreign reserves in the BRICS countries, using both the Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) and Quantile ARDL (QARDL) models over the period 2000Q1–2021Q4. The results of the NARDL model suggest that GPR has long-run asymmetric effects for BRICS, while in the short run, all countries display insignificant asymmetries. The QARDL model reveals a quantile-dependent asymmetric relationship both in the long run and short run in the BRICS countries. In the long run, GPR has a significant impact on reserves at the higher quantile for Brazil, lower quantiles for China and South Africa, and had an insignificant impact in Russia and India. In the short run, GPR impacts are located at the lower quantiles in South Africa. The control variables of Real Effective Exchange Rate, M2 Money, Foreign Direct Investment, and Domestic Credit to Private Sector have asymmetric effects on reserves at extreme quantiles both in the long run and short run. Central bankers are advised to consider geopolitical risk when accumulating foreign exchange reserves for precautionary reasons.

JEL Classification

C54, E58, H63

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.



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