Document Type
Article
Publication Date
9-2022
Abstract
John Maynard Keynes (1930) asserted that the central bank sways the long-term interest rate through the influence of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. Recent empirical research shows that Keynes's conjecture holds for long-term Treasury yields in the United States. This paper investigates whether Keynes's conjecture also holds for the monthly changes in US long-term swap yields by econometrically modeling its dynamics using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The econometric modeling reveals that there is statistically significant effect on the monthly changes in the Treasury bill rate on the monthly changes in swap yields of different maturity tenors after controlling for a host of macroeconomic and financial control variables. The findings from the econometric models that are estimated render a perspicacious Keynesian perspective on key policy questions and contemporary debates in macroeconomics and finance.
Recommended Citation
Akram, Tanweer and Mamun, Khawaja, "The Dynamics of Monthly Changes in US Swap Yields: A Keynesian Perspective" (2022). WCBT Working Papers. 25.
https://digitalcommons.sacredheart.edu/wcob_wp/25
Comments
JEL Codes: E43; E50; E58; E60; G10; G12
Working Paper No. 1011, downloaded from The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper Collection, which presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals.
https://www.levyinstitute.org/publications/the-dynamics-of-monthly-changes-in-us-swap-yields